The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is a gravity dam on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia, currently under construction. Once completed, the dam will become the largest hydroelectric power station in Africa. The reservoir, with a capacity of 63 billion cubic meters, will be one of the largest on the continent. The potential impacts of the dam have been the source of serious regional controversy. The dam could be at risk for damage from earthquakes, but no one knows if it has even been analyzed for that risk, or for the larger earthquake it is designed for. The failure of such an enormous structure endangers more than millions of people living downstream. In dam safety and flood forecasting programs, hydrodynamic modeling of dam failure is a crucial tool to assess dam-induced risks and support emergency planning, optimizing response efforts and directing first response teams to damaged areas. However, a better understanding of flood predictability and model effectiveness is needed before such systems can be effectively implemented. An in-depth review of the literature on hydrodynamic modeling of GERD rupture ...