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  • Essay / Review of the political and economic situation in India

    It was certainly a bolt from the blue when Indian Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi announced the demonetization of 500 and 1,000 rupee notes on November 8, with immediate effect. This proclamation sent shockwaves across the country as well as millions of Indians residing in different parts of the world. The main objective of this measure, cited by the Prime Minister, is to curb black money, which must be appreciated and taken at face value. Say no to plagiarism. Get Custom Essay on “Why Violent Video Games Should Not Be Banned”?Get Original Essay Nearly forty days have passed since the decision was implemented, and we have seen that even though the objective is good, there was a tragic flaw in terms of implementation, which ultimately led to the common man bearing the brunt of such a major policy change. In 1978, the then government had carried out a similar demonetization exercise, which did not yield the expected results. At that time, high value currencies represented barely 2.5% of the total currencies in circulation, unlike today where the percentage of high value currencies is 86%. In such a scenario, the withdrawal of these currencies will inevitably have repercussions in all sectors of our society. According to estimates by the Reserve Bank of India, the approximate value of the total currency in circulation is 16 lakh crore notes, of which high value notes amount to around 14 lakh crore. Replacing these notes with an equivalent quantity of new Rs:500 and Rs:2000 notes is not an easy task, as it would ideally take at least four to five months to print these currencies, given the current printing capacity of the tickets. The challenge here is to ensure that replacement is accelerated on a wartime basis, to minimize the difficulties faced by the public. It would also be interesting to carefully examine the likely results of this exercise in the long term. According to World Bank estimation, in 2007, black money or shadow economy in India accounted for 23.2% and at present this figure could be around 25%. With a GDP of 2,000 billion dollars and a parallel economy estimated at 25%, there would certainly be 500 billion dollars that would have escaped taxes. By visualizing a scenario where a 16% tax would be imposed on $500 billion, $80 billion would have entered the national treasury, which could further propel economic growth. Again, the main concern is that much of this $500 billion, supposedly black money, is perceived to be in the form of land, properties, gold, stocks, etc. We cannot deduce how much of this is in cash at this time. The apparent windfall as far as the government is concerned is the Rs 12 lakh crore that was deposited in banks between November 8 and today. This increased the bank's liquidity, thereby leading to a greater supply of Indian rupees and a decrease in demand. This, in turn, led to a depreciation of the currency which began to benefit expatriates in the GCC and other parts of the world, who enjoy a very lucrative exchange rate against the US dollar and other currencies of the Gulf. Ideally, this should boost remittances, but the flip side is that there has been a tangible decline in remittances due to liquidity availability constraints in banks and non-banking financial entities in India. An immediate transition from a cash economy to a cashless economy is a,.