Traditionally, the point estimation method has been used through cost-benefit analysis to clarify uncertainties in decision-making planning. Because all projects are vulnerable to degrees of uncertainty regarding cost, schedule, and product price, traditional deterministic cost-benefit analysis does not provide sufficient information. Therefore, the Monte Carlo simulation method is commonly used to measure value at risk (VaR). Value at Risk and Monte Carlo SimulationVaR is a methodology developed by the financial industry to provide quantitative data to support a company's exposure to risk. . VaR measures the worst expected loss over a given horizon under normal market conditions and a given level of confidence. In other words, if “c” is chosen as the confidence level, the VaR corresponds to the lower tail “1-c” of the projected distribution of gains and losses over the target horizon. In other words, we are 10% certain that we will not lose more than V dollars over the next N years.