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  • Essay / Delphi method: Forecasting approaches

    The Delphi method is part of the large family of forecasting approaches used in statistics. Forecasting is the art and science of predicting future events in an increasingly complex global economy, making forecasting difficult. Forecasting involves taking past events, such as online sales, and predicting them using mathematical or intuitive techniques. We could use intuition due to consideration of the product cycle, where sales are in the introduction, growth, maturity or decline phase. This is why there is rarely a perfect forecasting method. Demand can also influence forecasts, for example the demand for aluminum in the aerospace market. The forecasting system has seven steps. First, by determining the use of the prediction. Having decided on the use of the forecast, we must select the population on which the statistical inference is to be drawn. The duration of the forecast should determine the third stage of the forecast, whether the forecast is made for the short, medium or long term. After these 3 steps, we need to carefully choose the forecast models and gather the data we need for prediction. Ultimately, making predictions, validating and implementing the results are the final steps. There are 2 types of forecasting approaches: quantitative and qualitative. There are 5 quantitative methods which include nave approach, moving averages and exponential smoothing from the time series models group. Associative models are linear trend regressions that are part of the broader family of quantitative forecasting methods. When it comes to qualitative methods, there are four different forecasting techniques: market research, sales force composite, executive opinion panel, and Delphi method. Say no to plagiarism. Get a tailor-made essay on “Why Violent Video Games Should Not Be Banned”? Get the original essay The Delphi forecasting method is a qualitative method. “Qualitative forecasts notably integrate the intuition, emotions, personal experiences and value systems of the decision maker.” A qualitative research method has its weaknesses which can lead to inaccuracies. Vision in how we approach research can have its pros and cons. On the one hand, a smaller sample can lead to a more in-depth investigation of the topic being studied. It can also make it easier to discover new ideas. On the other hand, smaller height cannot be generalized to the entire population. If we vary the questions, one of the disadvantages would be the long data interpretation time, and this could also lead to follow-up questions during the data collection period. Additionally, varied questions may facilitate different directions for researchers and deeper and deeper exploration during the data collection process may constitute the disadvantages of a diverse set of questions. A natural setting can help achieve more valid results. The disadvantages could be that the data cannot be trusted if the respondent becomes unbiased. Meanwhile, research cannot produce any information if the study is not focused and is not properly planned. The Delphi technique was introduced in the 1950s by the RAND Corporation and its name derives from the Delphi Oracle. The Delphi method is also known as ETE- Estimate talk Estimate. The traditional version was a multi-round survey, widely used in businesses, and used as.