The invention of the transistor gave rise to the digital revolution that continues to this day. As digital technologies develop and improve, an increasing number of applications are found for these technologies. One example is the industrial robot that will completely replace humans, unlike today's robots that can only perform a subset of human tasks. “Welcome, Robot Overlords” by Kevin Drum. Please don't fire us? explains how this robot paradise will become a reality and explores its impact on society as work participation declines.[1] It also estimates when certain development stages of these industrial robots will be reached. This article supports Drum's view that the creation of industrial robots is inevitable, but argues that the timetable he proposes is too optimistic. Say no to plagiarism. Get a tailor-made essay on “Why Violent Video Games Should Not Be Banned”? Get an Original Essay One of the prerequisites for industrial robots is sufficient processing power. It may seem like true artificial intelligence (AI) is still some way off in the distant future when you consider the current state of technology; However, Drum uses Moore's Law to put the pace of technological progress into perspective. Moore's Law observes that "computing power doubles approximately every 18 months."[2] Using as a starting point the current state of computers with processing power equivalent to one-thousandth that of a human brain, he applies this exponential curve to extrapolate that it will only take until 2025 to that computers achieve computational parity with the brain. Even though Moore's Law has been in force for fifty years, computer chip makers like Intel are now struggling to meet these expectations. The chip industry's published roadmap has already been adjusted to account for a slowdown in performance improvement due to limiting factors such as heat dissipation and physical size limitations.[3] Perhaps Drum's statement that the processing power of the human brain can be achieved within a decade is too optimistic when considering the limits of how conventional computer chip technologies can be improved. New technologies, such as a change in material or manufacturing process, will need to be used to meet Moore's Law, and their success is not guaranteed. It may seem foolish to assert that such progress can never be achieved. However, creating a computer with the processing power of a human brain may be further in the future than Drum thinks. In addition to computing power, the robots that eventually take our jobs will need to efficiently harness their computing power to accomplish the tasks assigned to them. Drum provides numerous examples where today's computers have already demonstrated some semblance of human intelligence. Even before the 21st century, IBM's supercomputer was capable of defeating the world chess champion, long considered the gold standard in AI. More recent examples are Google's autonomous vehicle program and another IBM supercomputer that managed to beat the first two Jeopardy! players. In order to accomplish these increasingly complex human tasks, many researchers seek to model the human brain. Drum mentions Henry Markram of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology as one of these researchers.This neuroscientist is leading a project to model the entire brain by 2020, which even Drum acknowledges is overly optimistic. Nonetheless, it appears that limiting AI development to the narrow confines of the human brain is not the best use of new supercomputers. This sentiment is echoed by Drum with his analogy of the Wright brothers not modeling their plane after a bird flapping its wings. He rightly says: “Just as there are many ways to fly, there are probably also many ways to think. "[4] This approach makes sense given that computers use radars, cameras, and global positioning systems to collect information around them, which differs from what humans perceive using their five sense. Since the inputs are different, it is to be expected that the process using those inputs will also be different. Drum sees this move away from human mimicry as a step in the right direction and makes a final prediction that 2040 will be around the time when AI is completely ready to displace humans from the workplace. However, he does not provide an explanation for how this date was calculated, making it quite difficult to agree with him. Additionally, the fact that there has been no discussion of how robots will acquire the fine motor skills needed for a wide range of tasks casts doubt on his prediction. Regardless, the creation of industrial robots is irrefutable, but the timeline provided by Drum is once again too optimistic given current technology. The advent of industrial robots will likely result in the vast majority of the working class losing their jobs. Unlike the industrial revolution, these robots will replace both physical and cognitive functions, leaving no replacement jobs available for humans. Therefore, any discussion of whether robots will take over jobs must also examine the economic impact of this question. As companies replace more and more employees with robots, the business owners who own these robots will become more powerful. The share of income belonging to capital investment will increase while the share of labor will decrease, and this phenomenon is known as capital-biased technological change (CBTC). Drum lists five characteristics associated with CBTC and indicates that all began appearing in statistical analyzes more than a decade ago. One of the important consequences of this situation is the collapse of the consumer society. Just as the industrial revolution allowed the working class to generate surplus money for discretionary purchases, the digital revolution will reduce wages and reduce the appetite for these non-essential products. Drum's observation that "robots may be able to produce goods and services, but they cannot consume them" is consistent with this sentiment.[5] It is therefore necessary to establish a new system of distribution of wealth, a system which is not solely based on the exchange of work for remuneration. It will be the government's responsibility to tax capital gains at high rates in order to support its social welfare programs as more people begin to rely on them. Drum presents some interesting twists and turns on how wealth might be redistributed. Since everyone is currently blessed with a body and brain that is traded for income, perhaps a capital endowment is also needed to level the playing field...